We
know the odds are against us, and we play them hoping for that big
win. We do it because it's fun, and many times you will hit smaller pots,
win a little on a given session, and there’s always a chance
for that big one that will change your life!
So,
why are there so many questions about this.
I
think there are two areas to consider.
1}
In general, all the serious questions revolve around BJ and the RNGs
that control them. Slots and Video Poker aren't questioned that
often for the
reasons discussed above. This gets tricky, but I'm going to try to
make some sense of it all..
The
RNG doesn't know that 12, 15, 20 straight wins for the dealer is a
bit unrealistic compared a land casino.
It doesn't care if you have 5 dollar bet, or a 500 hundred dollar bet
up, cause nothing is calculated on that one hand, but rather on
hundreds of thousands
of hands, and 100s of thousands of dollars in wagers, probably
millions. Your 500.00 bet is a miniscule number in the Big Picture.
Although it is a Big deal to you personally if you loose about 8 of
those 500 shots straight, but the size of the bet was not really a
factor in my opinion.
You
might say, ok then, rework the software so it can't do that? Right?
Make it so you still have an appropriate and accepted edge as in a
land casino, but make it play more like a land casino. Don't allow it to
have these crazy streaks that are so unrealistic. Why can't they do
that, you might ask?
Well,
the answer is simple,... they'd have to "RIG IT"! And, if
they rigged it to create the realism we'd like to see and feel,
they'd have to "RIG" another area of it to keep the house
edge where it rightly, and fairly should be in order for them to turn
an honest profit. The end result would then be a completely
predetermined and “RIGGED” game.
There's
not a easy solution to this. If they allow it to be TRULY random,
it's not ALWAYS going to act like a real deck game. There will be
occasional unrealistic, cold hearted, good old fashioned ass whippen
runs that people are going to swear on their mother's grave were
produced by a rotten, no good, RIGGED casino. Right?
What
are the choices then?
Rig
the games and outcome of each hand?
Shit they'd probably love it! It wouldn't change their profit
a penny, the complaints of this would go away, and everyone would
feel like they had a Fair game that fell within the
"Expectations" that you read about all the time from the
bean counters! See what I mean?
The
proof of non rigging is
the in complaints about them being rigged!
If these types of
complaints stop, Then I'll become suspicious that they are in fact
"Rigging" the table games!
I
think the evidence of NO
RIGGING is also when a casino has money problems.
How
can this happen? Impossible right? If the games are set up, rigged
and the casino is tuned to retain 40, 50, 60% of the deposits after
paying everyone out, how can a casino have money problems?
Simple
really, they aren't rigged and the operator can't tweak it and the
provider won't risk it. {The Big Providers, that is}
We've
taken a lot crap for being supportive of RTG in the last few months.
Well, I feel that RTG itself is
fine. Now I'm not saying lets make Mr. Staw a Saint, or Knight him,
but the guy had the courage to close up a few shops and foot the
bill the best he can out of RTGs pocket. I rather doubt RTGs pockets
were as deep as MGs were
when they bailed out Tropika, and MG took a long time to do it. RTG
needs to make a better effort in the area of ownership of the
casinos, but the software itself seems to be a player favorite.
So,
#2} If the RNG is fair and the casino is tuned to retain a fair
40,50,60% or so of the deposits, How the hell do these things
go under? They can't right? Any fool can operate an online casino
right?..... Wrong.
60%
of nothing is still nothing. They still have to get players in their
casino. They have to get enough of them so that the percentage is enough to
cover their expenses, payroll, and what the heck, the owner deserves
a return on his investment too, right? That's going to require
quite a few deposits to foot the bill on all this. Correct?
Herein
lies the answer to problem casinos. We'll use MG and RTG as examples
since they have both encountered very similar problems.
Is it MGs fault that Tropika bit the dust? No way!
They provided good
casinos that if properly marketed to get players to deposit there,
would make money. Same thing applies to the RTG situation.
MG
and RTG
are not responsible for doing the sales and marketing for the
casinos.
There is a line here!
So,
what happens is this. Money Man or Woman buys a casino because it looks
like it can't lose. They have NO CLUE as to how to get, and keep
customers coming in there and it's not as easy as many, many people
think!
They
can't "RIG" the software, so they slowly go under! SEE What I mean? If they could,
there would never be any failures since they would retain 100% to
save their own asses! Faced with their own demise, some will be
forced to close up because a reputable provider WON'T rig it for them.
As a ditch effort, some will put
up a RISKY bonus plan, cross their fingers, and hope the combination
of players that they get will be compulsive enough to lose it all! If it doesn't work, then
there is a monumental problem,
and the players usually suffer the consequences, along with the
marketing affiliates!
Another
Problem is, Online Gamblers are not cut out of the material that
most land lubbers are. I think onliners are more calculating, maybe
a little smarter overall. Many are looking at it as a tool to try to
make a little money. Sort of a second job! On the flip side, the MAJORITY of
land casino players are there for balls to wall recreation
and entertainment. Their mindset is different. Many go to Vegas
thinking we will take this
much to gamble with, and when it's gone, it's gone. That was fun, now
whose performing at Caesar's tonight!
The
loss is more expected, and a win just makes great memories of the trip! I
am talking the masses, not the exception.
The FEW that go to land
casinos these days that do
have the smarts to beat the house, won't be there long. They would
have to really keep on the move to make a living at it these days. This is a
dying profession. Also, the casinos are emailing pictures of the pros
back and forth to each other to guard against the
professional.
I'll bet there are some pros that
actually use disguises!
The
point
is, the motivation online and on land are not quite the same.
When you add all this up, owning an online casino can be just as big
a loser, as it can be a winner.
Too
many casinos is also contributing to plight. There are so many good
deals for the players that there is almost no reason to go back to the
same casino over and over again. Just keep your eyes peeled, and
Friday Morning a few new ones seem to pop up! The longer a casino is around, the tougher it gets to find new
players for it since the new players coming in for the first time
have so many choices compared to just a few years ago.
The expansion
of new casinos is outpacing the influx of new players. The industry
growth is probably ok. More fresh dollars are coming in, but instead
of those dollars getting split 4 ways, they are getting split 20
ways, so the income per unit drops. What do you do? Open a new
casino of course! Attract the new, and the faithful old players
all over again.
The
situation will be self correcting, I think. Eventually the Strong
organizations will survive to dominate, and the weak will dissipate
into cyber space!
Are
they rigged to beat specific players, though? I really don't think so!
At least not the Major Software Brands!